Do you remember the spring of 2001?
- “The Gladiator” won the Oscar for Best Picture and Russell Crowe was Hollywood’s hottest actor.
- The NASDAQ was just (1) year past the dot.com bubble when it was trading at 5132. Today, even with tech darlings like Apple & Google, the NASDAQ trades around 2800.
- The US economy slipped into recession while President Bush took office. His election was arguably one of the most hotly contested in the history of the US.
- The Baltimore Ravens defeated the New York Football Giants in Superbowl XXXV.
- The Federal budget surplus was projected to be $5.6 trillion by the year 2011.
- Apple had not yet introduced the iPod.
- 9-11 was still several months off.
So much has taken place in the last 10 years. A historic run-up in the price of homes, followed by an unprecedented (excluding the depression) drop in value. The rise and fall of prices has been so dramatic that it becomes difficult to even understand where we are….where are we again?
The average selling price of a home in El Dorado Hills, CA in the 1st Qtr of 2001 was $426,000. Ten years later? $484,000 – A 13.6% increase.[hr]
The average selling price of a home in Folsom, CA in the 1st Qtr of 2001 was $305,000. Ten years later? $358,000 – A 17.4% increase.[hr]
What does that mean? I can tell you for certain what it means….beware of those that are convinced that they can predict exactly where we are going!. I mean seriously, if we could all just be a little more honest with ourselves we would conclude that we just don’t know. Go back to the top and read it again and look me in the eye….yep 9-11, saw that coming…housing bubble, check had that pegged……the coming cliff….moved all my assets to gold in 2006….really?
Everywhere I look I see agents that are convinced of their point of view. So convinced in fact that they have given up even listening to the other guy. Real Estate is a fascinating profession because at it’s core it is fundamental. People want to feel safe and secure. They want a place to raise their families, create memories, and invest in their future. Real Estate professionals assist people in their journey and educate buyers and sellers by sharing there experience and expertise. They emphasize the dream, warn clients of the pitfalls, guide folks as best they can. A talented Real Estate professional is essential to understanding a particular market. Utilizing historical selling data and comparable sales, they can get pretty close to a value that an appraiser will place on a particular piece of property. Trust a Real Estate professional that gives you sound advice with one caveat….they leave the door open for other perspectives and points of view.
But please, for gods sake, for all of you agents out there, please stop predicting the future…..it only makes you look foolish.